Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
